COVID-19 and ethnic Inequalities in England and Wales*

The economic and public health crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed existing inequalities between ethnic groups in England and Wales, as well as creating new ones. We draw on current mortality and case data, alongside pre-crisis labour force data, to investigate the relative vulnerability of different ethnic groups to adverse health and economic impacts. After accounting for differences in population structure and regional concentration, we show that most minority groups suffered excess mortality compared with the white British majority group. Differences in underlying health conditions such as diabetes may play a role; so too may occupational exposure to the virus, given the very different labour market profiles of ethnic groups. Distinctive patterns of occupational concentration also highlight the vulnerability of some groups to the economic consequences of social distancing measures, with Bangladeshi and Pakistani men particularly likely to be employed in occupations directly affected by the UK's ‘lockdown’. We show that differences in household structures and inequalities in access to savings mean that a number of minority groups are also less able to weather short-term shocks to their income. Documenting these immediate consequences of the crisis reveals the potential for inequalities to become entrenched in the longer term

Teaching Index Numbers to economists

Economic statistics are frequently reported in the form of index numbers. This article considers how the field of Index Numbers should be approached in the teaching of a general economic degree. While the topic finds a natural home in statistics modules, it is emphasised that the area can also be referred to in the teaching of other areas of economics. It is also emphasised that the differences between Index Numbers theory and the practice of compiling economic statistics such as inflation can help students gain a better understanding of applied economic statistics. Methods for assessing learning in the area are also considered and available material to support teaching is also summarised

The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change

Within 5 years, China's CO2 emissions have nearly doubled, and China may already be the world's largest emitter of CO2. Evidence suggests that exports could be a main cause for the rise in Chinese CO2 emissions; however, no systematic study has analyzed this issue, especially over time. We find that in 2005, around one-third of Chinese emissions (1700 Mt CO2) were due to production of exports, and this proportion has risen from 12% (230 Mt) in 1987 and only 21% (760 Mt) as recently as 2002. It is likely that consumption in the developed world is driving this trend. A majority of these emissions have largely escaped the scrutiny of arguments over “carbon leakage” due to the current, narrow definition of leakage. Climate policies which would make the developed world responsible for China's export emissions have both benefits and costs, and must be carefully designed to achieve political consensus and equity. Whoever is responsible for these emissions, China's rapidly expanding infrastructure and inefficient coal-powered electricity system need urgent attention

The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030

China's energy consumption doubled within the first 25 years of economic reforms initiated at the end of the 1970s, and doubled again in the past 5 years. It has resulted of a threefold CO2 emissions increase since early of 1980s. China's heavy reliance on coal will make it the largest emitter of CO2 in the world. By combining structural decomposition and input–output analysis we seek to assess the driving forces of China's CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030. In our reference scenario, production-related CO2 emissions will increase another three times by 2030. Household consumption, capital investment and growth in exports will largely drive the increase in CO2 emissions. Efficiency gains will be partially offset the projected increases in consumption, but our scenarios show that this will not be sufficient if China's consumption patterns converge to current US levels. Relying on efficiency improvements alone will not stabilize China's future emissions. Our scenarios show that even extremely optimistic assumptions of widespread installation of carbon dioxide capture and storage will only slow the increase in CO2 emissions

Tanzania HIV/AIDS and Malaria Indicator Survey 2011-12(Preliminary Results)

Preliminary results (tables only) for the malaria indicators and selected HIV indicators. The results were released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 11 October 2012. Full results of the survey are still being compiled and will be included in the final report

Forecasting substantial data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty

A recent revision to the preliminary measurement of GDP(E) growth for 2003Q2 caused considerable press attention, provoked a public enquiry and prompted a number of reforms to UK statistical reporting procedures. In this article, we compute the probability of 'substantial revisions' that are greater (in absolute value) than the controversial 2003 revision. The predictive densities are derived from Bayesian model averaging over a wide set of forecasting models including linear, structural break and regime-switching models with and without heteroscedasticity. Ignoring the nonlinearities and model uncertainty yields misleading predictives and obscures recent improvements in the quality of preliminary UK macroeconomic measurements

Which sectors are driving regional economic development? Comparing the effects of changes in employment in knowledge-based and consumption-based sectors on regional economic performance

Despite increasing as a proportion of economic activity, the role of consumption in regional economic development does not feature highly in the policies or debates. Instead, the focus is on the promotion of innovative activity and knowledge assets. Using NUTS 3 level data this paper examines the changing level of employment in consumption-based and knowledge-based sectors in order to assess the contribution of each to regional economic development

Locating the place and meaning of physical activity in the lives of young people from low-income, lone-parent families

Background: In the United Kingdom (UK), it is predicted that economic cuts and a subsequent increase in child poverty will affect those already on the lowest incomes and, in particular, those living in lone-parent families. As a result, the informal pedagogic encounters within the family that contribute to the development of physical activity-related values, beliefs and dispositions from a very early age will be affected. Therefore, it is vital that we gain an understanding of the place and meaning of physical activity in the lives of young people, as well as the informal pedagogic practices and the socio-cultural forces that influence individual agency. Purpose: Based on Bourdieu's key concepts, this paper explores the interplay of structural conditions and personal agency with regard to physical activity in the lives of young people from low-income, lone-parent families. Methods: This study reports on the voices of 24 participants (aged 11–14) from low-income, lone-parent families in the West Midlands, UK. These participants were engaged in paired, semi-structured interviews to explore issues of personal agency by listening to how they reported on their present lives, past experiences and future possibilities with regard to physical activity. All corresponding interview data were analysed using analytical induction. Findings: This paper suggests that young people exhibited diminished desires to engage in activity due to structural constraints of time, parents' work commitments and a lack of transport that resulted in engagement in sedentary alternatives. Informal pedagogic practices within these families were restricted due to the associated structural conditions of living in a lone-parent family. As such, young people's choice to not seek out physical activities when at home reflected a ‘taste for necessity’ resulting from a lack of cultural and economic capital, placing restrictions on physical activity opportunities that stemmed from their family doxa. Conclusions: To succeed in fostering dispositions and opportunities to participate in physical activity, we must engage with young people from low-income, lone-parent families from an early age. Certainly though, further consideration of the informal pedagogic practices within, and the demands on, lone-parent families is required when designing any intervention or policy that seeks to enhance their current circumstances and provide opportunities for engagement in a variety of contexts

Disseminating Research Information through Facebook and Twitter (DRIFT): presenting an evidence based framework

Background: The social media platform Facebook boasts over 1,284 million daily active users globally. It is also known that a large proportion of adults use the internet to seek health related information.Aim: to critically analyse the use of social media to engage parents of children with ADHD with clinical research findings.Methods: Observation and qualitative content analysis combined with Facebook insights was used to evaluate the levels of engagement and interaction with different types of research information.Results: Over 1100 people from 41 nations have engaged with the group. Sharing information through a range of Facebook functions was found to successfully achieve engagement and reach nationally and internationally for this demographic.Conclusion: Lay research users are eager to engage and understand clinical research and social media is an appropriate way to disseminate this. This article has proposed some methods and explanatory reasons for this phenomena.Implications for practice: It is known that social media can be used for effective communication. This article presents a much-needed evidence based framework that may be used by nursing and health researchers to successfully achieve this